A Doctor, Architect and an Economist were arguing over which profession
was the oldest. The Doctor finally said, "Well, God performed the
first surgery in the Garden of Eden when He removed Adam's Rib so
medicine is oldest." The Architect said, "Oh, no before that God
designed the Heavens and the Earth, so architecture and building
predate medicine." And then the Economist said, "Aaaaah, but in the
beginning there was chaos, and who do you think creates chaos!"
* * * * * * *
It's come into the conversation once or twice (an hour) recently. What's the difference between a Recession and a Depression? How do you know if we're in one? What are all those people talking about? And what happened to that $3 Trillion that seems to have disappeared?
I know that everyone will be relieved to know that there is no agreed upon definition of a Depression. Even economists can't agree, and politicians really don't know, so what happens is that as events are unfolding everyone runs around like their collective butts are on fire, and then once everything settles down they add up the damage and make the pronouncement, "By Golly, that was a Depression! Who knew?"
(The old joke goes that its a Recession when your neighbor loses his job, it's a Depression when you lose your job.)
Old-school Economists based all their rules, predictions and understanding on a fundamental belief in the rationality of man. They believed that over time, people will do what is in their own economic best interest and that will translate into the economic best interest of their communities, states and countries. Now, that's a real nice happy idea. I like hearts, flowers and good fairies as well as most and better than some. But even I (who own not one but two Tinkerbell lunch boxes) can see that this may not be the very best underpinnings of economic policy.
Most people I know manage to be adult-like from time to time over the course of the day, but for the most part they are content if they appear to know what they're doing and are left alone to be as childish as they want to be when no one's looking. Nowhere is this more evident than in the way we handle money.
We make decisions all the time that aren't in our financial best interest. It's not in my best interest to exceed my budget just so I can have a pair of Christian Louboutin's but I can easily imagine a moment of weakness where I would say, "Budget be damned" because I have a weakness for shoes, and especially sexy-high heeled shoes. My weak impulses have been held in check lately because all my various health issues of the last several months mean that I am still fighting swelling in my feet and ankles and I refuse to buy (or wear) shoes that call attention to this condition.
But you see? My decision making in the above paragraph isn't motivated by what is in my financial best interest, it's all about what I want and how I feel about it.
In the normal course of business, markets cycle up and down for the same reason that my shoe acquisitions wax and wane, people either feel good about what they are doing or they don't. When they feel good, they buy stock. A lot of stock. That makes the price of stock go up. In the past, there's been a limit to how high that price could go because 1) people only have so much money to spend and 2) eventually they start not feeling so good about it so they start either selling or they buy something else. When they are feeling good things go up, when they feel bad things go down. That's what economists are talking about when they describe an ordinary business cycle. When the down gets low enough that companies go out of business or have to be drastically reorganized (reductions in employees = higher unemployment rates = key economic indicator) they call it a Recession.
But what happens when you have events that fall outside that normal cycle?
By now, I think you'd have to be pretty oblivious not to have heard, read, or seen far more about money and the workings of the markets over the past week than most of us care to hear, see or know in a decade. So I'm going to skip over the parts about how the lending institutions were making ever more risky loans and then bundling these into investment products that appeared to minimize the risk through insurance and diversification but in actual fact increased the risk by giving everybody and his dog a stake in the pie. I'm going to skip the part about how the Federal Reserve policies made it possible for these instruments to be purchased on credit long after the point that market forces should have kicked in and caused people to slow down or stop buying these instruments. I'm going to skip over the ways that CDSes (Credit Default Swaps) made it possible for buyers to feel good when they should have been saying "hell, no!." I'm going to skip over the part about how the whole house of cards was a pyramid scheme that required the price of houses in the US to increase by drastic amounts every year from here to eternity in order to sustain it.
We've all heard that.
What I want to say is that going forward we need to realize that we no longer live in 1912. News and information travels at the speed of light, and with electronic trading financial tsunami's can be launched with the push of a button from any keyboard in the world.
People who are familiar with chaos theory are really fond of this butterfly in China who occasionally flaps its wings and causes a hurricane in Texas. Well, in the same way, there are butterflies who are at this moment sitting at their keyboards making decisions about money. On Monday the markets will open and all those butterflies' wings will begin to flap. When the collective flap of millions of little butterfly wings happens at the same moment and in the same direction, we get a world-wide financial tsunami.
Last week they flapped us to the worst week in the history of the US Market. The thing that everyone was talking about by Friday was how they were all taken by surprise. The companies in trouble by the end of the week weren't in trouble because they were over-extended, or because they were investors in risky CDSes. They were in trouble because all these butterflies were looking at the butterfly next door and saying, "By golly, Joe is flapping east, and he looks like he knows what he's doing, I'd better flap east too. In fact, I'm afraid if I don't flap easterly harder and faster than Joe, he'll get there first!!"
So what are we all to do?
We need to keep in mind that 95% of all the stocks we hold in mutual funds are strong and we need to stop looking at the butterfly next door. If you invest in the markets, there are only 2 numbers that matter: the price of your stock on the day you buy it and the price on the day you sell it. If you bought into a mutual fund at $32.50/share, it would be insane to sell it on a day that the price has dropped to $12.95. But that's just what a whole lot of people did last week. When you do that, the difference between your purchase price and your selling price becomes a "hard loss" - that's money that just evaporated away. All the "wealth" held in 401(k) instruments that has supposedly been lost over the past week, isn't a loss at all until or unless someone tries to sell. Until that moment it's just ink on paper.
Over the past ... forever ... markets have consistently performed. And they are likely to do the same in the future. So rather than taking your money out and stuffing it in a mattress, leave it alone. When the markets recover, and they eventually will, you can sell your stock for more than $32.50 and have a profit. It may not be a huge profit (and don't be greedy, that's what's led to a lot of the recent wing flapping), but it won't be a loss.
The best way to have money is to save money. It's not to hope that the house you bought with zero money down will double in value and sell in time to save you from your Adjustable Rate Mortgage. The way to comfortable wealth is not to play financial roulette, it's to calmly and steadily deposit regular amounts of money and leave it alone. It's not exciting or sexy, but the thing that makes a money decision exciting is the riskiness of it. The best personal financial policy is a boring personal financial policy.
So don't worry, be happy, be a saver, and while economists are trying to sort out whether October 2008 was a severe Recession or was the beginning of a Depression, you can go back to not caring about the financial news.
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